Manchester United’s 2024/25 marketing campaign has gotten off to a disastrous begin. The Crimson Devils are reeling in 13th place within the Premier League and drew their first Europa League recreation. It has been a removed from the best begin to the brand new season for Erik ten Hag’s aspect.
The Dutch supervisor now finds himself beneath some stress, with a giant week forward for United. They journey to FC Porto on Thursday night time within the Europa League, earlier than a visit to Villa Park awaits them on Sunday afternoon.
Losses to the Portuguese aspect and Aston Villa may go away Ten Hag in bother, with reporter Alex Crook reporting that “a managerial change” can be made if outcomes don’t enhance.
United’s underlying numbers to date
Context is essential, and while the Crimson Devils have clearly made a poor begin to the brand new season, it’s essential to look additional than their outcomes. For reference, Ten Hag’s aspect have performed six occasions within the Premier League, successful two, drawing one and shedding three.
The losses haven’t simply been unfortunate defeats, both. The primary one got here in opposition to Brighton and Hove Albion, a late 2-1 defeat on the Amex. Liverpool then received at Outdated Trafford the next week, a humbling 3-0 victory, earlier than Tottenham repeated the feat final Sunday.
Utilizing Understat’s detailed Premier League table, it’s clear to see that United are massively underachieving. They’ve amassed seven factors to date, however are underachieving on anticipated factors, a metric which suggests they need to have 1.63 factors greater than they do, with an anticipated factors tally of 8.63xPTS.
While they’re statistically seeming extra snug from a defensive standpoint this season, they’re struggling to search out the again of the online, having scored 5 occasions. Nevertheless, their anticipated targets tally is a surprising distinction; as excessive as 10.81xG, a giant hole between the prompt whole and the precise whole.
|
United underlying stats vs. remainder of Premier League 2024/25 |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Stat |
Quantity |
PL Rank |
|
Factors |
7 |
=eighth |
|
Anticipated factors |
8.63xPTS |
tenth |
|
Objectives scored |
5 |
=eighth |
|
Anticipated targets scored |
10.81xG |
ninth |
|
Objectives in opposition to |
8 |
=fifth |
|
Anticipated targets in opposition to |
13.10 |
seventeenth |
|
Stats from Understat |
||
All of those numbers are trigger for concern for Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his newly appointed hierarchy. Ought to they resolve to sack Ten Hag if issues don’t enhance, they could have the proper alternative ready within the wings.
The dream Ten Hag alternative
The person in query right here is membership legend, and present United assistant supervisor, Ruud van Nistelrooy. The previous striker scored 150 goals and grabbed 30 assists in simply 219 video games for the Crimson Devils; he’s extensively considered one of many membership’s best-ever centre-forwards.
Now, with Ten Hag’s future up within the air, the previous Dutch striker has been linked with the position ought to it grow to be vacant.
According to Crook, the United board “would take into account placing” their legendary striker in interim cost, one thing which may flip everlasting if it’s a success, simply as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer came upon in 2019.
The 48-year-old is a good supervisor in his personal proper and comes with a excessive popularity. He was supervisor of Dutch giants PSV Eindhoven within the 2022/23 marketing campaign and coached a aspect that included Everton defender, and long-term United goal Jarrad Branthwaite, and thrilling younger Netherlands attacker Xavi Simons.
Van Nistelrooy had an outstanding report at PSV, coaching 50 games in all competitions, successful 34, drawing eight and shedding eight. He received the Dutch Cup throughout his time in Eindhoven, however left the membership as a consequence of ‘a scarcity of administration assist and amid experiences of a participant revolt’, as ESPN reported.
Impressively, Van Nistelrooy has a “higher win charge than Arne Slot” within the Eredivisie as football statistician Statman Dave explained.
The person who changed Jurgen Klopp at Anfield over the summer season beforehand coached Feyenoord.
There, Slot boasted a win charge of 65%, lower than the previous United supervisor, who had a 69% win charge within the league at PSV. Van Nistelrooy additionally had a greater league win charge than Ten Hag throughout his Ajax tenure, the place he received 67% of his video games.
It will be a daring alternative for United to nominate Van Nistelrooy, however he’s clearly a supervisor with nice expertise, as his report at PSV suggests.
Given he’s an all-time nice of the membership, the appointment would absolutely go down nicely with the followers. He can be hoping to information the membership again on observe this season if given the possibility.
